A drive starts with a number attached
Before a snap is taken, a drive already has an expected value, and that value is set by where the ball is. A drive beginning near midfield needs a couple of first downs to reach kicking range; a drive beginning deep in a team's own territory needs a sustained sequence in which nothing goes wrong. The gap between those two starting points is worth points over the course of an afternoon, even when the two offences are equally capable.
This is why coaches who look conservative on the surface are often making a defensible calculation. They are not refusing to attack; they are declining to hand the opponent a short field in exchange for a modest chance of extending a drive. Whether the calculation is correct depends on the numbers, not the instinct — but the instinct is not stupid.
The kicking game is a yardage transaction
Punting is usually described as giving up, and it is more accurately described as a trade: possession for territory. A punt that pins an opponent deep has bought thirty or forty yards of field, and that field has to be re-earned before any points are possible. Returns, coverage and hang time are the mechanics of a market almost no one watches closely.
The same is true of kickoffs and the touchback rules that keep being revised. Every change to those rules moves the average starting yard line by a few yards for every drive in the league, which sounds trivial and is not. Small numbers repeated on every possession of every game are how competitive balance shifts without anyone noticing.
Where a turnover happens matters more than that it happened
Turnover counts are the standard summary of a game's swing, and they flatten something important. An interception deep in the opponent's half costs a scoring chance; an interception returned to the other side of the field costs a scoring chance and hands one over. Both appear as one turnover.
Reading a close game well means tracking territory rather than events. If one side keeps starting drives twenty yards further forward, it will usually win despite similar yardage totals, and the explanation will sit in the kicking game and the location of mistakes rather than anywhere the highlights look. Arena's NFL rules and statistics guides cover the mechanics that make this legible.